At the time of this report, SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks had been reported in many Chinese cities and in other countries, threatening a global pandemic. Professor Joseph Wu and his team estimated the size of the epidemic in Wuhan, China, and forecasted the spread of the disease globally. The results were published in highly esteemed journal The Lancet.
Key takeaways from the study:
- An average of 2.68 persons would catch the infection from one infected person.
- The time required for the number of infected cases to double was 6.4 days.
- Locking down Wuhan may not have been enough to slow the epidemic, as other major Chinese cities had reported outbreaks.
- With Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen accounting for more than 50% of outbound international air travel, it was predicted that other countries would experience COVID-19 outbreaks in the first half of 2020.
Editor's note: As of late 2020, the virus has spread from Wuhan to other major Chinese cities and other parts of the world, resulting in a global pandemic. As large cities are well connected to each other through travel, more effective control measures are needed to prevent a pandemic.
To read the original article published in The Lancet, click here.
